This is an article published in Business standard. it was great fun reading it. I just felt i need to share it with all of you. After all sharing increases Learning!! After all it will increase my practical Knowledge.
IMF Predicted in 2018, that the growth rate will be around 3.9%.and in 2019 according to it the growth rate has become ” Broader and stronger”.But this has not happened and the world economy has grown by 3.6% in 2018 and as per latest update by IMF itself it will grow at 3.3% in 2019.
IMF is laying all the blame for slow growth on Temporary factors like US-China trade tension, uncertainties due to Brexit. But in reality the issue is much more deeper.This time in 2019, the growth will be closer to 3%, due to emerging financial Tensions in Europe.
The IMF misses the bigger picture as usual . The major problem is that the Economically advanced countries who produce over 60% of the output have for some time, infact since 1970s are not doing that great.Nortwestern University’s Robert gordon says that despite the use of modern technologies, the productivity remains ever slow.
The entire growth rate of world has fallen on the Shoulders of china.When China grows by exports, it also sucks up imports from other countries due to consumption.They transmit growth to other parts of the world. The chineese revved up the world economy in 2004-2006, 2009-2010 and in 2017.But it has reached a saturation point.History shows that china should be growing by 3 to 5% now, rather than more than 6% as being pointed out by chineese authorities which they are trying to achieve by stimulus. both fiscal and credit.
China pushing too hard for economic growth has resulted in increasing risks of financial crisis.By standards of credit risk and asset price inflation, the crisis should have stuck them by now.But they are playing deftly by increasingly providing stimulus to prevent rapid slowdown but reigning in the stimulus by just enough to avoid financial crisis. In 2017, the stimulus provided by chineese Govt. help stirred the economic growth in EU, for which the European Central bank quite arrogantly and ignorantly took credit as a good policy measure.
But in 2018, as china stopped its stimulus , Italy went into a technical recession and France was on the brink of one.But the ECB , IMF were lost in their own world and quite oblivious of this were projecting high growth rate but the World economy was stalling.Luckily in 2019,the chineese Govt. has kicked in with some stimulus. There is no exact data for it, but this has resulted in better growth for europe, pulling it out from immediate recession.
So the world is depending on the temporary nature of China’s financial growth.The OECD has already warned that much further stimulus will increase the Corporate debt and also increase the debt. of bad Government to finance wasteful infrastructure.Preferring slower growth to financial crisis, China will decelerate, which will send the global economy to a downturn once again.
Dampening the global Economic outlook further, the US economy is comming out of stimulus and repatriation from Overseas Corporates.The most important point to note here is that the economy of Germany may have finally come down below its high economic growth zone.It has slowed down since 2018.It is perhaps because of two reasons-: 1.The much vaunted automobile industry is not able to match the electric car industry.2. Secondly it is struggling to come to terms with Pollution control measures
Finally the major issue is Italy’s Economy.All the major indicators of it all are red and sending warning signals.Its economic productivity growth is zero and possibly negative. Its debt to GDP ratio is more than 130%.
Since the economic productivity is zero, the chances for internal turnaround to combat recession is less.European Central bank also could not do much about it.Soon the crisis in Italy will spread to France., which is also not doing good and has marginally better economic indicators and soon could face recession.
The IMF should highlight this points in advance , instead of painting rosy pictures.Otherwise we all have to pay a heft price for it.
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