A comparison of the economic record shows that both regimes had their fair share of hits and misses.
In this election time it is tempting not to compare the performance of the Current Government with previous regime on the economic front.
However, if the truth to be told the Government makes a framework for the economic agents to operate and the reforms that are implemented facilitates growth.
There are always time gaps between policies and their effects and the spillovers imminent. Careless practices can led to a negative impact after a lag. There is very little to differentiate between the two.
The Government directly affects the economic activity in the area of the budget.But again here , it has limited scope as the direct action is found in the state budget which is one and half times bigger than that of center.
Therefore the Linkage of economic growth and development while being positive in a subjective way cannot be quantified objectively.
But still Government take credit for whatever goes right in their regime and passes on whatever does not go right to other regimes.This is logically not correct but is accepted as a part pf gamesmanship.
Here is assumed that the BJP Led Government has taken credit and blame for its policies during the 2014 to 2019 regime.Similar, assumption has been taken for Congress regime in previous years.This is in sync with the media’s treatment about the relative performance of the two governments.Fourteen Indicators have been considered here for objectively comparing the economic performance .Average values have been taken into consideration for most indicators barring some where summation of all values, or changes at the end points have been made.
Table 1 shows the areas where the BJP Government scored better than the Past UPA Government.
Official data has been sourced and the revised past series on GDP has been considered notwithstanding the controversy surrounding it.
Also CPI for industrial workers has been used to maintain comparability and IIP numbers has been used with a spliced series in absence of past series.In general with all the qualification standing, the performance has been more or less evenly balanced.
| Table 1-: | BJP scoring over Congress in %. | ||
| Indicators | Period | 2009-2010 to 2013-2014 | 2014-2015 to 2018-2019 |
| GDP Growth | 5 years | 6.7 | 7.5 |
| VA In Manufacturing | 5 years | 6.4 | 8.6 |
| CPI Inflation | 5 years | 10.3 | 4.8 |
| Fiscal Deficit in GDP | 5 years | 5.35 | 3.65 |
| Current Account Deficit | 5 years | -3.34 | -1.43 |
| Forex Reserves($ Billion) | Pt-to- Pt | 264.1 to 303.6 | 303.6 to 411.9 |
| FDI( $ Billion) | Cummulative | 179.7 | 268.5 |
Table 1 shows that the BJP -Led Government has scored better than UPA on seven leading indicators which may be considered to be the primary variables which reflect the state of the economy.The Growth rate was higher and the inflation lower as compared to the previous regime.
Favourable Factors-:
While it can be argued that circumstances like the global prices of crude was low and the monsoon was satisfactory favored the Government, but the Government should get credit for keeping the inflation under control.
The monetary policy framework was strong, keeping the tabs on inflation while the fuel prices were marked to market.The BJP also did well on the Fiscal deficit front making it easier to achieve the FRBM target.
This also coincided with low CAD and favorable global commodity prices, the economy did will on both the deficit.
Gross FDI Inflows was higher by more than 50% on cumulative basis and the policies invoked by the Government on Doing business as well as opening up certain sectors of the economy did well for the Government.The External sector also performed strongly, with the strength being reflected with the increase of Forex reserve by 108 billion dollar compared to 40 billion dollar during the preceding period.
Hence, while all of these achievements may not have been directly linked with Government and its policies.But the party can surely take credit for such a performance.
But the opposition too had its laurels as can be seen in Table 2.
| Table 2-: | Congress scoring over BJP in %. | ||
| Indicators | Period | 2009-2010 to 2013-2014 | 2014-2015 to 2018-2019 |
| VA InAgriculture | 5 years | 4.3 | 2.9 |
| Exports Growth | 5 years | 12.6 | 1.5 |
| NPA | Pt-to- Pt | 2.25 to 3.84 | 3.84 to 10.4(Dec) |
| Gross Fixed Capital formation | 5 years | 33.24 | 28.9 |
| IIP Growth | 5 years | 4.6 | 4.17 |
| Sensex | Pt-to- Pt | 9,708 to 22,386(130%) | 22,386 to 38,673(73%) |
| Net FII’s | Cummulative | 121.43 | 67.5 |
The UPA seems to have done well in some of the secondary variables.However,this again may have been on account of serendipity. The Sensex .boomed after the Lehman crisis, as the indices had fallen sharply and the base effect worked well.
FII investment too was much higher during the tenure of 5 -year, but the annual average inflow of 24 billion $ was not particularly high.The reason for subsequent low inflow was related to the FED reversing the QE and increasing the intrest rates which affected markets all across the world including India.
The NPA Legacy
The NPA levels too prodigiously increased during NDA regime though it could be argued that the NPA’s merely were recognized during this period but were essentially created during preceding periods where banks pursued a easy lending norms.
The UPA Led regime did convincingly well in three areas. One was Farming ,where the growth was good despite the drought years.
Secondly, the capital formation during the Congress Led government averaged 4% higher than the NDA Govt.(Though the NPA’s could have impacted only the last two years.)Third, is the exports, which was much lower in NDA regime.
Hence if variable to variable comparison is made between the two Governments, they seem to be even in terms of no. of success.But as has been pointed out earlier that taking credit for numerical achievements may not be “Causal” and more a case of chance where such targets have been achieved.
But the Game of realpolitik will carry on.
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