Imagine 2020,In china after a decade of record breaking high temperature and three years of consecutive drought .It decided to adopt Geo-engineering of climate .It releases Sulphate particles to the stratosphere to reflect the sunlight and reduce Temperature.Now one year after this, India experiences a severe Monsoon shock, affecting its crop very badly.India is not sure whether the Geo-Engineering by china has impacted the rainfall.What Should India do now? Should it engage in Climate related Negotiation.Or it should politically handle the issue?
In the 4th session of United Nation Environment assembly(UNEA-4) in Nairobi in March.A draft result was brought on the floor to “prepare an assessment of the status of Geo-engineering Technologies.The parties failed to come to an argument, “Deeply Concerned about potential global risks and adverse impacts, Switzerland and 10 other countries from Burkina faro, Mexico to South Korea had prepare the draft resolution to study Geo-engineering, Climate Science,actors and activities involved , expected impacts and options for Governance.It’s failure illustrates the lack of global consensus due to uncertainty, which in turn is affecting technological research,political interactions, Legitimacy of forums and public trust.
Climate Geo-engineering is large scale intervention in Earth’s Climate to reduce the adverse impact of Global warming.It involves steps like Carbon-dio Oxide removal to reduce atmospheric CO2 concentration and Solar radiation Management to increase earth’s reflectivity and reduce the emerging Infrared radiations from the Earth’s Atmosphere,which the (GHG) Greenhouse gasses absorb resulting in Warming.
The first Lesson, we can learn from the failure is that we have no consensus, on how to govern Global Uncertainity. Uncertainty regarding effectiveness of Geo-Engineering , its second order impacts, safety and affordability.It is important to know that the issue surrounding Carbon removal is different from Solar radiation Management.For Example , Manufacturing Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage.(A carbon Removal Technique) has concerns of a very huge amount of Land usage.Whereas, the solar radiation management has concerns of affecting rainfall in other regions.
The US apposed Clubbing Carbon removal and solar radiation management together, the EU said all CGE technologies needs to be handled with care.This is a great stand taken by EU.It is also important to know that Convention of Bio-diversity on 2010 also took a great stand by putting a moratorium on CGE technologies affecting Bio-diversity.But even this weak draft proposal was rejected by US and Saudi Arabia.It is not correct, as we need to understand the gaps and work on it.
Secondly, attempt to define threshold between climatic adaption , emission mitigation and GEC in a single go will be futile .Even in Theatrical circles Scientists keep Computer modelling, small Scale field experiment,Large scale Experiment and eventual deployment separate from each other.But the real issue is that introduction of GEC measures will reduce the emission mitigation incentives.According to some sources, the US did not accept the proposal because it felt that the GEC draft can be a substitute for emission mitigation.This is deeply problematic.It is because the proposed emission reduction, at Paris convention for climate change is way below the emission reduction required for global sustainability .It is very sad if the Globe’s biggest polluter’s see it this way. It signals grave injustice and an abandonment of any notion of Historical responsibility.
Thirdly, there is no concern on forum to discuss Geo-engineering Climate issues.No amount of code for scientists involved in CGE will help to Self – Govern.Neither will any Governance code undertaken by respective National government of Countries.If we want to make some changes at the planetary level we have to contemplate political negotiations at planetary level also.
It was also raised by those opposing those regulations, that there are other platforms as well like IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) Or UN framework Convention in Climate Change. But IPCC has no mandate to suggest governance options.There are others which have relevance like Montreal Protocol (to Govern Sulphate Aerosols), London Convention/London Protocol (to Govern Ocean fertilization), MARPOL ( to Govern massive cloud brightening) etc.But in which forum do countries have motivation and incentives, private interests accountable, and can take legal recourse if something went wrong.
Opponents of CGE will question that enabling the approval of GEC science as too permissive.Proponents of CGE will question that global rules and regulations are too restrictive.We are unlikely to find a forum to discuss on technological relevance and political legitimacy.By its nature CGE science needs to be discussed on various forums.
The most important lesson that we could learn is transparency. Transparency has a dual role of reducing public risk and building public trust.It is the bedrock of CGE. It involves Timely and salient information about CGE Proposals and methodologies,funding to reduce the uncertainty on motivation.It involves seeking prior approval from the Potential impacted community before implementing it. Transparency on research results and direct impacts on reducing temperature and associated impacts on precipitation,hydro-logical cycles, ocean and bio-diversity is important to establish responsibility and liability in case of any adverse trans-boundary consequences.
Geo-engineering is a unique field involving rarefied climate science with Geo-politics.Currently we have no means to weigh the risks of not acting against emergency climate change with the risks of employing Controversial CGE methods to curtail it.It is high politics and we are having no consensus on how to deal with this uncertainty.
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